Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.180595 0.210826 0.243999 0.283025 0.327601 0.376844 0.435280
2025-11-30 0.136927 0.179756 0.231772 0.299201 0.383861 0.486164 0.618622
2025-12-07 0.103549 0.148797 0.208163 0.290912 0.402286 0.545867 0.743646
2025-12-14 0.081219 0.126037 0.188793 0.281707 0.414086 0.593916 0.854192
2025-12-21 0.065916 0.109549 0.174265 0.275266 0.426418 0.641131 0.965175
2025-12-28 0.056982 0.100637 0.168750 0.280045 0.453810 0.710241 1.111207
2026-01-04 0.050901 0.095012 0.167061 0.289727 0.488583 0.792061 1.281516
2026-01-11 0.045202 0.088952 0.163585 0.295661 0.517414 0.866523 1.445853
2026-01-18 0.039900 0.082637 0.158649 0.298218 0.540459 0.933126 1.602317
2026-01-25 0.035098 0.076395 0.152873 0.298353 0.558958 0.993226 1.752078
2026-02-01 0.030546 0.069848 0.145586 0.294729 0.570220 1.041699 1.885622
2026-02-08 0.026567 0.063766 0.138294 0.290064 0.578818 1.085773 2.014219
2026-02-15 0.022458 0.056775 0.128434 0.279628 0.576348 1.111342 2.114706
2026-02-22 0.021421 0.056436 0.131983 0.295883 0.625413 1.231966 2.390606
2026-03-01 0.018382 0.050915 0.123929 0.287699 0.626582 1.265783 2.513482
2026-03-08 0.015721 0.045781 0.115945 0.278587 0.624778 1.293526 2.626613
2026-03-15 0.013631 0.041669 0.109632 0.272211 0.627679 1.330000 2.757959
2026-03-22 0.012503 0.039874 0.108431 0.276942 0.653951 1.413284 2.983300
2026-03-29 0.011764 0.039012 0.109340 0.286528 0.691299 1.520814 3.262038
2026-04-05 0.010893 0.037604 0.108701 0.292402 0.721020 1.614938 3.520109
2026-04-12 0.009946 0.035788 0.106769 0.294934 0.743468 1.695601 3.756095
2026-04-19 0.008997 0.033766 0.104004 0.295068 0.760388 1.765729 3.974689
2026-04-26 0.008005 0.031393 0.099950 0.291479 0.768324 1.817314 4.158177